WPA/LI — Player Analysis
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Stat of the Week
by Peter Liubicich
WPA/LI — Player Analysis
This post was written by Peter Liubicich on January 18, 2013
Posted Under: Stat of the Week

This week we’re looking at Win Probability Added/Leverage Index (WPA/LI), the last stat we’ll look at before we delve into “Clutch.”

WPA/LI allows us to compare players based on their WPA since not every player comes up to the plate in situations with the same Leverage Index.  WPA/LI is called “Context Neutral Wins” since it measures all players Win Probability Added and their contribution to team wins while neutralizing players who came to bat more often in highly leveraged situations and those who came to bat in highly leveraged situations less often.

We’ll look at the WPA and WPA/LI this week of the lineup that scored the most runs this past season, the Texas Rangers.

Player

WPA

Ian Kinsler

-0.74

Elvis Andrus

1.10

Josh Hamilton

2.50

Adrian Beltre

2.77

Nelson Cruz

0.36

Michael Young

-1.42

David Murphy

1.52

Mike Napoli

-0.79

Geovany Soto

-0.72

Here we see that Adrian Beltre and Josh Hamilton had the highest Win Probability Added throughout the 2012 season, meaning they performed well in the heart of the Rangers lineup during highly leveraged situations.

Player

WPA/LI

Ian Kinsler

-0.33

Elvis Andrus

-0.06

Josh Hamilton

3.99

Adrian Beltre

3.22

Nelson Cruz

0.02

Michael Young

-1.43

David Murphy

1.42

Mike Napoli

-0.14

Geovany Soto

-0.52

When you look at the team’s Context Neutral Wins, Beltre and Hamilton’s contributions to the team winning are even higher.  One player who helps us see the difference between WPA and WPA/LI is Elvis Andrus as he got up in more highly leveraged situations throughout the season helping him get a higher WPA, but when it is neutralized his WPA/LI drops to -0.06, meaning his overall contribution to wins was not what WPA was telling us.

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Reader Comments

WPA/LI should not be confused, at all, with WPA. The entire problem with WPA, the leveraged aspect of it, is undone with WPA/LI.

#1 
Written By Sanford Mann on January 23rd, 2013 @ 9:04 pm

It’s a really thgouh call and I’d really like to here what everyone else thinks as well.Is this a keeper league? That may influence my thinking, but only slightly.You are getting two of the three best players in the trade. I actually entertained a deal swapping Tulo for Hanley myself, but felt the other owner was asking too much extra for the move to make sense. The fact is, would it be a shock for Tulo to actually outproduce Hanley the rest of the way? In this case, your improvement of Zimmerman over Beltre is a big win.The problem for me is giving up CarGo Rasmus for Granderson, you are losing big-time there, making the whole thing almost a wash.If you could eliminate the outfielders, it’s a home run, but I doubt the other owner would go for it. As the 4-for-3, the deal is a virtual wash, thgouh you would also be opening a roster spot for Stanton in the process.

#2 
Written By Jitesh on January 26th, 2013 @ 12:28 am

Curtain call to Joe Girardi for (at least temporarily) kicikng his bunt-itis. 1st and 2nd, up a run with Gardner up and no out I have to think every Yankees fan was cringing for the eventual bunt/failed bunt attempt. The pitcher grooved one (probably thinking bunt too) and Gardner stroked it into CF for a hit. Girardi just needs to mix that in enough so the 1st and 3rd baseman aren’t crashing in every time and he forces the pitchers to make a quality pitch and not let them off the hook by allowing them to groove in a low stress pitch knowing a bunt is coming. What he really needs to do is play on his tendency to bunt and have batters purposely square whenever they see a pitcher throw over to first (or 2nd) or step off.

#3 
Written By Vee on January 27th, 2013 @ 1:10 am

I currently have to fguire out Rasmus as I was just offered this trade:I get Hanley, Zimmerman and Granderson. I give Tulo, Rasmus, CarGo, and Beltre.My team (before trade):C- Napoli1B Votto2B McGehee3B BautistaSS TuloOF Kemp, CarGo, RasmusUTIL Soriano, BeltreBN Stanton, SantanaI want to counter to remove Granderson and either CarGo or Rasmus from the deal. Say I removed Granderson and CarGo, my team would look like this:C- Napoli1B Votto2B McGeheeSS- Hanley3B ZimmermanOF Kemp, Cargo, BautistaUTIL- Soriano, StantonBN SantanaThe 4 for 3 or 3 for 2 would allow me to pick up an extra bat while I wait for Santana. What do you guys think?

#4 
Written By Amit on January 27th, 2013 @ 5:27 am

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