Tim Marcham rates the 30 General Managers and gives some good feedback on the pros and cons of each.  As he points out this is a tough task though since almost half- 14 of 30- have run their team for two years or less.  How can you evaluate those guys?  Nearly impossible.  But the fact that 3 years ago half the teams were run by someone else- what does that say about turnover in baseball?  50% at the GM level seems ridiculous.

In 2008, I did some research about how GM’s value the fans, and noted then that only a third of the GM’s then had contract that would extend this far.  Yet those employees were responsible for millions and millions of dollars, and were making decisions for their club that would extend years after their own contract was expected to expire. How do you expect your General Manager to think long-term if you don’t hire him for the long term?  On the other hand, the same problem exists for an owner as for Marcham- how do you measure success.

What is interesting about the Marcham piece is that numbers 23, 24, 25 have been on the job less than a year, while 26-30 have been around for a number of years.  His description of Mark Shapiro could apply to several that have kept their jobs despite lack of wins.  Shapiro earned his reputation over a long period with the Cleveland organization- one that had many many strong years.  What has changed over those years, is that many of his top lieutenants from those early years have been hired away to other organizations, leaving him with himself and maybe not the strongest of the recent college graduates.  The Indians still run a tight ship, but the evaluators may not be quite what they were.

The description of Shapiro though is still better than Marcham’s view of Omar Minaya.  And the truth, as we sit entering 2010 is that they could both be described as overrated.  The thing with Minaya though is that all that has to happen is that his young, untouted pitchers come through and step up and then Minaya goes back to 15 or higher.

The reality is no one could step into these jobs and be evaluated purely on ones own merits within two years.  The state of the organization when one arrived must be part of the evaluation framework.  And comparing a GM with two years in the job, entering a disasterous situation, like say the Pirates its really impossible to discuss how well he has done on the job- especially when you compare him to someone who has been around for years or years.

This is one that is good to discuss over and over throughout the season.  Hopefully, we keep checking in and taking a look.