Ray Ratto writes a piece today questioning the future for Bob Geren, Oakland’s Manager.   Ratto points out that of the 196 managers since 1980 only 4 have ever held the job for longer than 4 years without either taking their current team to a World Series or some former team to the World Series.  Only one manager has had a worse winning percentage- Lloyd McClendon who managed the Pirates from 2001-2005.

But Ratto also point out that Geren works for a General Manager who honestly believes that the Manager matters in the outcome of the game about as much as the  ground crew.  Geren makes less than any other manager out there, and the team has one of the lowest payrolls in the Majors, let alone in their division.

As fans, we often want to see a sign that something is going to change when our team fails to win half of their games for years in a row.  Firing the manager is, of course, the easiest way to do that.  There are only 30 managers at a time in the Major Leagues, but countless guys that want to be a manager.  And if you run a team, and you don’t value the manager, why not fire the manager if you think that will make the fans happy?

The Athletics though have very smart fans. They may not think much of Bob Geren, but they are smart enough to look with a questioning eye at anyone who replaces him.  I mean why would you take that job? Your boss won’t value what you bring to the table. You won’t be given too much to work with in terms of talent- and no one is going to pay you to work under those conditions.  Sure, its a shot to show what you can do- but you will be managing a $40 million payroll.

So could anything actually be gained by firing Bob Geren?

Here is the problem the Athletics are in from where I sit- which is pretty far away.  The A’s need a new facility, and the folks that are running the team are putting their focus there.  The farm system is not developing players at any special rate- the only thing that is keeping the A’s farm system alive is trading the guys at the major league level to restock.  The Pirates are beginning to show that if you put the money you aren’t spending on salary and put it into your player development, you can produce a steady flow of major leaguers.  (The Pirates are starting to do this, not their yet.) But the A’s are not doing that.

Ratto references the Billy Beane quote about there being no difference between wins between a $40 million team and $75 million dollar team.  Well that is true in some cases, but not all.  Look at the Florida Marlins.  Florida won 12 more games than Oakland last year in a tougher division.  Blaming Bob Geren does not seem to be the answer, no matter how many games the team loses.  Changing the expectations of the fans in Oakland will not come from his removal.  Might as well just keep him- unless of course the players begin their own mutiny.

The advantage of the high turn-over rate among players though is that few are around long enough to dislike the manager.

Bob Geren might get fired this season, despite Beane having been the best man at his wedding.  But that will not be a signal that anything has changed in Oakland. Honestly, it will most likely mean more of the same.  While I know writers like Ray Ratto have to write something- discussing the future of the manager of Oakland is relatively useless.  Perhaps more time should be spent on the ownership, or even Billy Beane himself.  While he is credited with making Money Ball the widespread phenomena that it became (sorry Bill James) he hasn’t improved upon it, or altered it to keep his team successful.  I would be interested in hearing the argument for and against firing Billy Beane, much more than speculation about the Oakland manager.