Many in baseball are holding onto their hats to see how the Tim Lincecum arbitration case plays out.  On the one hand, if he loses, he will still go from a $650,000 a year salary to an $8 million one-year deal.  If he wins, he will earn $13 million.  The team could settle anywhere in the middle there, but more than likely they will try to sign him long-term.

That’s what Seattle has done by signing their ace Felix Hernandez to a 5-year deal.  They didn’t wait to see what the Lincecum outcome was, because no matter what it wouldn’t be good for anyone trying to sign Hernandez.  If Lincecum were to win, and actually make $13 million in his third year at the major league level, well Hernadez would be pretty close to set for a similar payday.  By offering a 5-year deal to Hernandez, they get him cheaply (compared to Lincecum for this year ($6.5 million) and next ($10 million), and then his salary goes way up into one of the top player echelons for three years.  The Mariners don’t have to worry about Hernandez getting into arbitration hearings with him, nor do they care now about the outcome of the Lincecum hearings.  They know exactly what they will pay Hernandez the next five years, and so they can plan their budgets around that knowledge.  That alone is worth locking up a player long-term.

Of course, Hernandez could get hurt and lose a year or two. But, again, the Mariners are paying for the healthy part of his contract, and they are paying to be able to plan their payroll.  The injury time is a risk.  Hernandez and his people know that he could probably make more money if he goes to arbitration the next couple of years, but they also know he could get hurt at any time, and a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

The Hernandez deal also informs the Giants negotiations.  While Hernandez numbers look better when viewed through the differences in the leagues, the Rookie of the Year award and Cy Young that Lincecum have earned make his negotiation stance a little tougher.  The parameters for the Hernandez deal probably look pretty good to the Giants, and the guaranteed portion probably looks pretty good to Lincecum.

The other thing to remember, is that a long term deal does not mean the player can’t still be traded.  If the deal is structured correctly, both Hernandez and Lincecum could end up being good deals at the end of the contract as well.  And as long as their are a few big payroll teams willing to pay to win, their will always be takers.  Though many knock that about baseball, it actually gives these mid-market teams some room to make mistakes.